The work described below is now available as a Data Module for each of Illness and Disability, for the local authorities in each of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. The Data Module is described in detail in its User Guide . With the Data Module, a user chooses the local authority (or several of them), and is presented with rates and projections for these areas, based on the 2008-based government population projections and three variant projections of disability rates. The Data Module requires the Derived Forecasts software. The cost of each Data Module is £300. Alternatively it is available as part of the Service Package, described in POPGROUP's pricing structure.
CCSR offered projections of disabled populations in a collaborative three-year project beginning in October 2006.
This project is now completed. Participating Local Authorities received projections of limiting long term illness and disability in January 2009 as well as an evaluation of data, estimation and projection methodologies based upon a number of more detailed working papers as listed below. The work was associated with a doctoral thesis and the production of disability projections for each local authority areas in the UK, which are available from Alan Marshall's website.
Evaluation of data, estimation and projection methodologies
Working paper 1 : Review of disability data and definitions
Working paper 2: Review of methods for the projection of disabled populations
Working paper 3 :Review of methods for the graduation of age schedules
Working paper 4: Comparison of models for the estimation of sub-national disability schedules
Working paper 5: Meeting the information needs of Local Authorities
Working paper 6: Research Design
LLTI and disability projections for the Greater Manchester districts
Next steps - POPGROUP is taking several steps forward late in 2010. Following consultation with users a new module will project 'derived forecasts'. It will estimate future populations of characteristics that are closely associated with age and sex. This includes household structure, economic activity, disability and many aspects of demand for services.
An application for research funds has been successful for a follow on project that aims to provide documentation and data that will allow POPGROUP users to replicate, update and develop the disability projections developed here.
For further information contact Alan Marshall.