Biographical Information:

I joined the Economic and Social Data Service Government team at CCSR in February 2010 having previously worked as a Statistics Officer in Rochdale Council's Research and Intelligence team and as a Mathematics teacher. My academic training is in quantitative research; I graduated with a degree in Pure Mathematics and Statistics in 2000 and returned to academia in 2005 to study for an MSc in Social Research Methods with Statistics followed by a PhD both at CCSR and funded by the Economic and Social Research Council. I passed my PhD viva in December 2009.

Research Interests

 

• Small area estimation of population and other socio-demographic characteristics
• Projections of population and other socio-demographic characteristics
• Using relational models to estimate characteristics that display strong age patterns
• Projecting the impact of population ageing on the size of populations with a disability
• Trajectories of geographical health inequalities

I will continue to develop these research interests as part of a Postdoctoral Fellowship funded by the Economic and Social Research Council in 2011 and will be based at the Centre for Spatial Analysis and Policy (Leeds University).

Doctoral research and resources

My thesis develops a methodology for the estimation and projection of disability for UK districts (average population=120,000). I combine census and survey data using relational models, a technique borrowed from the demography literature for the estimation of mortality, to derive local estimates of disability distinguishing disability type. I show that relational models have a number of advantages over the techniques that are more traditionally used for local estimation of disability prevalence.

My thesis is available for download. You are free to use any of the contents; please cite:

Marshall, A. (2009) Developing a methodology for the estimation and projection of limiting long term illness and disability, PhD Thesis, School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester.

The estimates and projections developed in my thesis are available for download. For more details on the techniques used to develop this data see my thesis (chapters 7 and 8 in particular).

Publications

Marshall, A. (2009) Developing a methodology for the estimation and projection of limiting long term illness and disability, PhD Thesis, School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester.

Marshall A and Simpson L (2009) Sustainable rural communities: the case of two British National Park areas, Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy 2(2): 107-127.

Marshall A. (2006) Projecting Disability Prevalence at Sub National Levels, British Urban and Regional Information Systems Association, vol 168.

Marshall A. (2006) A critique of the development of quantitative methodologies in human geography. Radical Statistics vol 92

Presentations

Marshall A (15th April 2010) Adding geographical detail to social surveys: Estimating local disability prevalence. Sample data from surveys and the Census: data sources and resources for health analysts. Manchester University.

Marshall A (11th September 2008) Estimating local disability schedules Accepted presentation at the British Society for Population Studies conference, Manchester

Marshall A (10th July 2008) The use of relational models to estimate age specific disability prevalence. Accepted poster at the European Association for Population Studies (EAPS) conference, Barcelona

Marshall A. (26th June 2008) Estimating local disability prevalence. Accepted presentation at POPFEST conference, Manchester University

Marshall A. (17th June 2008) Issues measuring disabled populations. Invited presentation at the Local Authorities Research & Intelligence Association (LARIA) Population and Household analysis seminar, London (http://www.laria.gov.uk/content/articles/population_hh_analysis_17062008/pdfs/marshall.pdf)

Marshall A (13th September 2007) Estimating and projecting the population of National Park Areas in the UK Accepted presentation at the British Society for Population Studies conference, St Andrews

Marshall A. (2006) Estimating disability prevalence at sub-national levels. Accepted presentation at POPFEST Liverpool University

Reports

Finney, N., Kapoor, N., Marshall, A., Sabater, A. and Simpson, L. (2008) Ethnic Inequalities Draft project report for The Runnymede Trust

Marshall, A., Simpson, L. (2006) Population, household and Labour force projections for the Peak District National Park Authority and East Midlands Regional Assembly. Available at http://www.peakdistrict.gov.uk/populationstats2006.pdf

Marshall, A., Simpson, L. (2005) Population and household projections for the Cairngorms National Park Authority. Available at:

http://www.cairngorms.co.uk/resource/docs/publications/27072006/CNPA.Paper.283.Population%20and%20Household%20Projections.pdf

Click here for a CV