Quantitative Methods in the
Social Sciences 2
ESTIMATION AND PROJECTION OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
17 - 19 September 2008, University of Southampton
International migration is a major driver of population change in Europe. The data required to understand or predict this change, however, are limited and inconsistent. This seminar focuses on recent and new approaches for estimating and projecting international migration in the context of inadequate and missing data. The key themes of the seminar have been identified as:
- Models for estimating current or future flows, including assessment strategies
- Models for harmonising data collected by different sources or countries
- Methods for dealing with missing or inadequate data
- Methods for distributing national level estimates or projections to regions and local areas, including the use of administrative and survey data
- Dynamic population models that include changing international migration estimates or projections (at national or local levels)
- Methods for handling short term as well as long term migration and their integration into alternative population estimates
The keynote address on "The Indirect Estimation of Migration: Methods for Dealing with Inaccurate and Missing Data" was given by Andrei Rogers from the University of Colorado.
Organisers
James Raymer, University of Southampton
with Phil Rees, University of Leeds and Frans Willekens, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI)
PROGRAMME
| Wednesday 17 September | |
| Welcome and introduction | |
| 14.00 | Official welcoming and overview of QMSS2 theme on 'immigration and
population dynamics' |
| Session 1 - The Importance of Migration Data and Estimates | |
| 14.30 | UK perspective Jonathan Swan (Office for National Statistics, UK) |
| 15.00 | Eurostat perspecive David Thorogood (Eurostat, Luxembourg) |
| Session 2 - MIMOSA Project | |
| 16.00 | Overview Frans Willekens (NIDI, The Netherlands) |
| 16.30 | Estimation of population stocks by citizenship and place of birth Jakup Bijak (Central European Forum for Migration and Population Research (CEFMR, Poland) |
| 17.15 | Estimation of international migration flows James Raymer (University of Southampton, UK) |
| Thursday 18 September | |
| Session 3 - Migration Estimation | |
| 09.00 | Towards harmonisation of migration statistics Beata Nowok (NIDI, The Netherlands) |
| 9.30 | Statistical modelling of international migration flow tables Guy Abel (University of Southampton, UK) |
| 10.00 | Bayesian estimation of migration flows Jon Forster and Peter W.F. Smith (University of Southampton, UK) |
| Session 4 - Migration Forecasting | |
| 11.00 | Expert knowledge elicitation for use in Bayesian immigration forecasts: A study of seven European countries Jakub Bijak (CEFMR, Poland) |
| 11.45 | Bayesian framework for forecasting immigration flows using expert-based prior distributions Arkadiusz Wisniowski (CEFMR, Poland) |
| Session 5 - Local Area Estimation and Projection | |
| 14.00 | New migrant database: Concept, development and preliminary analysis Peter Boden (University of Leeds, UK) |
| 14.45 | Development of a population projection model for ethnic groups in the UK incorporating internal and international migration Phil Rees (University of Leeds, UK) |
| Session 6 - Keynote Address | |
| 16.00 | The indirect estimation of migration: Methods for dealing with inaccurate and missing data Andrei Rogers (University of Colorado, USA) |
| Friday 19 September | |
| Session 7 - Economic Models and Population Dynamics | |
| 09.00 | A generalized model of international migration determinants: An application to European immigration from Southern Mediterranean countries Nicolas Péridy (University of Nantes, France) |
| 09.45 | Frameworks for Combining Internal Migration Data Corrado Guilietti (University of Southampton, UK) |
| Session 8 - Conclusions and Discussion | |
| 11.00 | Discussion on migration estimation led Frans Willekens (NIDI, The Netherlands) |
| 11.45 | Discussion on migration projection led Phil Rees (University of Leeds) |