CCSR Working Papers series

• CCSR Paper 2012-01: Inequalities in breast screening uptake among South Asian women in the UK: The role of service providers - A. Jain**, N. Acik-Toprak, J. Serevitch, J. Nazroo
  

  Abstract Objective: To asses how Breast Screening Units in the UK communicate with their South Asian screening population. Design: Survey sent via mail to all 95 Breast Screening Units in the UK in summer 2009. Survey received a response rate of 70%. Results: A majority of Breast Screening Units agree that it would be useful to record the patient’s language to improve services to patients (79%), yet only a minority of units record the patient’s language when attending mammography (27%). Only one unit sent out the initial invitation letter for screening in a South-Asian language. The most common mode of communicating the breast screening programmes to South Asian women are translated leaflets and 85% of units can access them, yet only 38% hand them out to women when attending mammography. 73% of units arrange interpreters in advance, but 39% of the units rated their communication with South Asian women as poor or very poor. Finally, 75.8% of units revised the breast screening information locally, yet only 12% of units consulted South Asian women for this. Cluster analysis showed that the majority of units ie: 47 (71%) do the minimum to reach out to South Asian women (Routine Outreach Units) while only a minority of units tend to be more active in addressing South Asian women (Pro-active Outreach Units, 19 (29%)). Conclusions: Leaflets and the use of interpreters are seen as a quick solution to communication barriers, yet this is clearly not enough to ensure informed consent and to increase the uptake rate among South Asian women. Interventions to increase uptake rates need to be more long-term and multiple in nature, tailored to the specific needs of the local community by, for example, developing close links with the community through Health Education workers. Reducing ethnic inequalities in uptake rates of breast cancer screening needs to remain a policy priority of the Government and the Breast Screening Programme. *This study has been funded by the The Genesis Breast Cancer Prevention Appeal, Manchester. **University Hospital of South Manchester, Email: anil.jain@uhsm.nhs.uk (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2011-05: A multilevel analysis of the relationship between national economic conditions, an individual’s job insecurity and well-being in Western Europe. - Ewan Carr, Mark Elliot and Mark Tranmer
  

  Are individuals more strongly affected by job insecurity when economic conditions are worse? Combining data from the European Social Survey and Eurostat, this paper considers whether national economic conditions moderate the association between job insecurity and subjective well-being. The negative association between perceived job insecurity and individual well-being is widely reported (e.g. Burchell et al., 1999; De Witte, 1999). There is also evidence to suggest that local unemployment rates are negatively associated with individual well-being (e.g. Clark et al., 2010). Much less is known about the interaction of these variables. Job insecurity may be associated with depression (Ferrie et al., 2002) or life dissatisfaction (Lim, 1996), but how does the strength of these associations vary in the face of contrasting economic conditions? A multilevel modelling approach is used to test a single hypothesis: that the negative effect of job insecurity on subjective well-being is amplified when regional and national economic conditions are worse. The analyses show that, while perceived job insecurity is negatively associated with life satisfaction for all individuals, the association is strongest in countries where unemployment is high and GDP is low. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2011-04: AUXILIARY VARIABLES AND ADJUSTMENTS FOR MISSINGNESS IN LONGITUDINAL STUDIES - Ian Plewis
  

  Different sorts of auxiliary variables – variables measured at previous waves, frame variables and paradata - can be used to improve the accuracy of response propensity models, and to enhance adjustments for missing longitudinal data. All these variables are used in this paper when constructing iterative probability weights, carrying out multiple imputations, and specifying models that jointly model a substantive process and the missingness mechanism. Data from the first two waves of the UK Millennium Cohort Study are used to illustrate the potential value of auxiliary variables. We find that the accuracy of response probability models – as measured by the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve – is improved by the inclusion of frame variables and paradata but these variables have rather little effect when adjusting the chosen longitudinal estimates. There is, however, evidence to suggest that unobserved variables are correlated with the outcome of interest and with the probability of being a respondent at wave two. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2011-03: Modelling socioeconomic neighbourhood change due to internal migration in England - Stephen Jivraj
  

  In England, deprived neighbourhoods were the focus of a number of policy initiatives constructed by the previous Labour government. The most notable was the New Deal for Communities programme. The evaluations of this programme and earlier interventions have shown that attempts to improve neighbourhood outcomes might be affected by people selectively moving in and out of targeted areas. Nonetheless, there is very little evidence that provides an appreciation of this effect. This paper examines the effect of internal migration on the concentration of low income families in neighbourhoods in England during 2002-2007 using a multilevel growth curve model. Explanatory variables in the model include the regional area and district type of a neighbourhood as well as whether the neighbourhood is ranked within the 20% most deprived in England. The findings suggest that deprived neighbourhoods increase their concentration of poor families at a faster rate than all other neighbourhoods. However, the increase is marginal. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2011-02: End Game: Can Game Theory Help Us Explain How a Statistical Disclosure Might Occur and Play Out? - Elaine Mackey and Mark Elliot
  

  To fully account for the risk of a statistical disclosure occurring requires that we develop a better understanding of how a disclosure might occur and what its consequences might be. To do this we need to consider not just the target data but also the environment in which that data is produced and released. Through this we can identify and explore the events leading up to and following from a (claim of) disclosure. That is, we can move beyond modeling the mechanisms of statistical disclosure to conceptualising and systematically representing disclosure events in their entirety. In this paper, we show how it is possible to apply a game theoretic reasoning to model disclosure events to examine how key agents in a disclosure event might interact to bring about particular outcomes. The paper gives a brief introduction to game theory and to how it might be applied to the disclosure event situation. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2011-01: Census 2011: Independent Review of Coverage Assessment, Adjustment and Quality Assurance - Ian Plewis, Ludi Simpson and Paul Williamson
  

  In October 2010 the National Statistician, Jil Matheson, asked Professor Ian Plewis from the University of Manchester to lead a review of methods for coverage assessment, coverage adjustment and quality assurance of the 2011 Census population estimates for England and Wales. These methods are crucial to the accuracy of final census population estimates, which will underpin official statistics and be used by researchers, decision makers and policy makers for years to come. Professor Plewis was invited to lead the review on the recommendation of the President of the Royal Statistical Society

  ONS have now published a response. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2010-08: Assessing the accuracy of response propensities in longitudinal studies - Ian Plewis, Sosthenes Ketende, Lisa Calderwood
  

  The omnipresence of non-response in longitudinal studies is addressed by assessing the accuracy of statistical models constructed to predict different types of non-response. Particular attention is paid to summary measures derived from receiver operating characteristic curves and logit rank plots as ways of assessing accuracy. The ideas are applied to data from the first four waves of the UK Millennium Cohort Study and the results suggest that our ability to discriminate and predict non-response is not high. Changes in socio-economic circumstances do predict wave non-response with implications for the underlying missingness mechanism. Conclusions are drawn in terms of the potential of interventions to prevent non-response and methods of adjusting for it.. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2010-07: Ethnic Differences in overweight and obese children in England - Vanessa Higgins, Angela Dale
  

  The 1999 and 2004 Health Surveys for England are used to examine ethnic differences in overweight and obese boys and girls aged 2-15. Separate logistic regression models are run for 6 different ethnic groups. Having overweight or obese parents is a stronger predictor of childhood BMI than ethnic origin. Mothers’ and fathers’ BMI are predictors of childhood BMI across the ethnic groups studied but there are differences between boys and girls with the same ethnic origin. Interventions aimed at reducing childhood overweight/obesity should focus on parental characteristics, but they also need to be sensitive to gender and ethnic differences. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2010-06: Demographic Explanations for Changes in Ethnic Residential Segregation across the Life Course - Albert Sabater, Nissa Finney
  

  This paper presents analyses of changes in the level and direction of ethnic residential segregation in Britain taking a life-stage perspective. Changes are separately analysed for age cohorts, ethnic groups and sub-national areas. The results show ethnic residential desegregation in the 1990s across age cohorts and ethnic groups, and this is particularly marked for young adults. The second part of the paper examines how age differentiation in migration patterns can explain these changes in segregation. It shows that what has been described as 'White flight' and 'minority self-segregation' can alternatively be seen as a dynamics of desegregation in which age differentiated migration is common across ethnic groups: young adult urbanisation and family/older adult suburbanisation with immigration of a similar magnitude to the least and most diverse areas. The paper concludes that it is necessary to take age into account to understand ethnic residential segregation and its dynamics. The paper uses census-based population and components of population change estimates for small areas linking the 1991 and 2001 censuses in England and Wales and 2001 UK census microdata. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2010-05: Estimation of local demographic variation in a flexible framework for population projections - Ludi Simpson and Harvey Snowling
  

  An experiment with small areas of Fife in Scotland shows that persuasive local population projections based on standard data for standard areas are feasible without the regular publication of migration flows. Three approaches are compared: (a) direct estimation of local area age-specific schedules of fertility, mortality and migration based on data available to the national statistical agency; (b) adaptation of national schedules using only local area population estimates by age, total numbers of births, and total number of deaths: age-specific migration is indirectly estimated from successive population estimates; (c) use of the same rates for each small area. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2010-04: Understanding ethnic differences in migration of young adults within Britain from a lifecourse perspective - Nissa Finney
  

  This paper is situated at the confluence of two emerging areas of research: a lifecourse approach in internal migration studies and in geography more broadly; and studies of sub- populations within lifecourse research. The paper aims to better understand the complexities of ethnic group migration in Britain, in particular why young adults of some ethnic groups are more mobile than others. The paper draws on theories of norms of transition to adulthood. UK Census microdata of migration within Britain by age and ethnic group are used. The paper shows ethnic similarities: migration patterns that are distinct in young adulthood compared with other ages and many common characteristics of mobility. However, there are also differences between ethnic groups in levels of migration and in how young adult life events are associated with migration. In particular, partnership brings increased residential mobility for White British young adults but reduced mobility for South Asian young adults with females in both cases being the ‘partnership movers’. Being a student increases mobility for White British and Chinese young adults but reduces mobility for Blacks and South Asians (especially females) raising issues of access to higher education. The paper concludes that a lifecourse perspective provides an understanding of ethnic differences in migration previously lacking from ‘segregation’ perspectives. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2010-03: Geographical and Social Variations In Unpaid Caring Within and Outside the Household in England and Wales - Paul Norman and Kingsley Purdam
  

  Unpaid caring is defined as any help or support provided to family members, friends, neighbours or others because of their long-term physical or mental health or disability, or problems related to old age. It is estimated that there are over 6 million unpaid carers in the UK. In this paper we examine geographic and social variations in the amount of unpaid caring across England and Wales with a particular focus on carers aged 40 and over. Using the Samples of Anonymised Records from the 2001 Census we analyse individual sub-national geographic variations in the amount of unpaid caring in England and Wales. We make a distinction in terms of whether an unpaid carer provides care within or outside of their own household since there might be different geographies and characteristics of carers. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2010-02: From Me to You? A Comparative Analysis of Reciprocal Helping and Civic Society - Kingsley Purdam, Mark Tranmer
  

  Helping other people in terms of, for example, organising a local community event or providing support to a neighbour is at the core of debates about civic society. In order to develop our understanding of why certain people are more likely to help than others in different circumstances we examine the issue of reciprocity in relation to helping behaviour. We consider specifically whether a person who helps another person expects help in return. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2010-01: Constructing and Applying Risk Scores in the Social Sciences - Ian Plewis
  

  Social scientists are interested in associations between explanatory variables measured at an earlier point in time and later outcomes. In some contexts, it is useful to divide these explanatory variables into risk and protective variables although the literature is often confused about the distinction between them. This paper clarifies the distinction and shows how to assess the accuracy of risk scores generated from models that relate a binary outcome to a set of risk and protective variables. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the logit rank plot are introduced and summary measures of accuracy derived from them. The ROC curve provides a framework for informing decisions about whether and how to intervene to prevent a poor outcome by taking account of the costs of misclassification. The ideas are applied to two examples: (i) predicting adult educational disadvantage from variables measured early in life; (ii) classifying and predicting non-respondents in longitudinal studies. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2009-09: The Values of Helping That Underpin Civic Engagement - A Multilevel Analysis of the European Social Survey - Kingsley Purdam and Mark Tranmer
  

  Help and helping are part of the set of human values and are at the core of debates about civic engagement and active citizenship. In a general sense some underlying notion of help underpins all civic participation. Help and helping can be understood as a contribution to the success or achievement of something, to assist and to contribute to. Help and helping includes activities such as organising an event, assisting a neighbour and raising money for a charity or political party. To examine an individual’s civic engagement behaviour, in this article we consider the importance an individual attaches to helping other people (the value of help), the extent to which they actually help other people in practice, and their perceptions of the local culture of help. We analyse the European Social Survey using a multilevel approach. This allows us to disentangle country, region and individual level differences and for the inter-relationships of the variables at the different levels to be assessed. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2009-08: Acceptable and Unacceptable Migrants: How opposition to immigration is affected by migrants’ region of origin - Rob Ford
  

  Comparative European research has established that public opposition to immigration is widespread and politically important. However, most existing research has suffered from a serious methodological shortcoming: it employs aggregate measures of attitudes to immigrants, which do not distinguish between different migrant groups. This paper corrects this shortcoming by examining disaggregated British attitudes to migration from seven different regions. I find evidence for a consistent hierarchy of preferences between immigrant groups, with white and culturally more proximate immigrant groups less opposed than non-white and culturally more distinct immigrants. The differences in attitudes to different migrant groups are very large, calling into question the reliability of analysis which employs aggregate measures of attitudes to overall immigration. Both total opposition to migration and discrimination between migrant groups decline during the period examined. This is the result of large generational differences in attitudes to immigrants, which are in turn the consequence of cohort differences in education levels, ethnic diversity and in particular value orientations. Younger Britons, who are on average less authoritarian and ethnocentric, oppose immigration less and regard different immigrant groups more equally. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2009-07: Personal Support Networks of Immigrants to Spain: A Multilevel Approach - Veronica de Miguel, Mark Tranmer
  

  Immigrant flows to Spain have increased in the last decade, but little is known about the composition and role of personal support networks of immigrants to Spain. Our research questions are 1) to what extent are Spaniards, (more settled Spanish residents) present in an immigrants’ network, compared with non-Spaniards, such as other recent immigrants? 2) Which factors are associated with ties between immigrants and Spaniards compared with immigrant ties to non-Spaniards? 3) Does the support role of non-Spaniards and Spaniards differ? We analyse personal network data where each immigrant was asked about the role of their support network. Data were collected at two time points: 1) the first three months in Spain since the immigrant arrived, and 2) the six months previous to the survey interview. Multilevel logistic regression models are applied; the dependent variable is whether the immigrant has a tie to a Spaniard alter, as opposed to a non-Spaniard. We determine the characteristics that are most strongly associated with the probability of a tie between an immigrant and a Spaniard, including characteristics of the alters, the immigrants (ego), the relative characteristics of ego-alter, geographical factors and support roles. We use single-level ordered logistic regression models to investigate factors associated with the total number of Spaniards in the support network. Attributes of alters and egos are found to be important in predicting ties between immigrants and Spaniards, and to predict the total number of Spaniards in an immigrant’s network, especially the country of origin of the immigrant. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2009-06: “Women Between Part-time Work and Full-time Work: The Influence of Changing Hours of Work on Happiness and Life-Satisfaction”, - Gash, V., Mertens, A. and Romeu-Gordo, L.
  

  This paper asks whether part-time work makes women happy. Previous research on labour supply has assumed that as workers freely choose their optimal working hours on the basis of their innate preferences and the hourly wage rate, outcome reflects preference. This paper tests this assumption by measuring the impact of changes in working-hours on life satisfaction in two countries (the UK and Germany using the German Socio-Economic Panel and the British Household Panel Survey). We find decreases in working-hours bring about positive and significant improvement on well-being for women. Published Article: Gash, V., Mertens, A. and Romeu-Gordo, L. (2012) “The Influence of Changing Hours of Work on Women’s Life-Satisfaction”, Manchester School of Economics, EQUALSOC/LOPSI Special Issue. 80(1):51–74. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2009-05: Ethnic Differences in Physical Activity and Obesity - Vanessa Higgins and Angela Dale
  

  Obesity has been identified as a risk factor in many health problems, including arthritis, stroke, heart disease, cancer and diabetes. In England around a quarter of all adults are classified as obese and projections estimate this will rise to one-third by 2012. This paper uses the Health Survey for England (HSE) to examine ethnic differences in diet, physical activity and obesity in adults. It begins by providing a detailed break-down of differences in levels of obesity and physical activity for men and women in eight major ethnic groups for a nationally representative sample of the adult population of England. It then goes on to use modelling methods to ask whether additional factors related to the individual or the locality explain the differences between ethnic groups on both these outcome measures. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2009-04: A comparison of internal migration data derived from the Pupil Level Annual School Census with the National Health Service Central Register and 2001 Census data - Stephen Jivraj and Naomi Marquis
  

  Measuring internal migration is central to understanding demographic trends. However, it is more difficult to measure than other components of population change. In the UK, estimates are usually made using National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR) or decennial Census data. This paper will examine the potential of the Pupil Level Annual School Census (PLASC), a relatively new source of internal migration data that can provide more up to date information than the Census and more detailed socioeconomic and geographical information than the NHSCR. The paper provides an empirical comparison of migration data derived from the PLASC with the NHSCR and 2001 Census during the period 2002 to 2007. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2009-03: Preparation of Pupil Level Annual School Census data for the analysis of Internal Migration - Naomi Marquis and Stephen Jivraj
  

  The study of internal migration is central to our understandings of demographic change, but data used to measure migration within the UK are limited. While patient records are useful for studying migration for the population as a whole and by age and sex, they lack other characteristics important in understanding migration. Census data contain socio-economic and ethnic detail, but are limited by decennial collection. A relatively new data source, the Pupil Level Annual School Census (PLASC) may provide an alternative measure of internal migration which has the potential to fill some of the gaps left by current methods. This paper begins the process of exploring the usefulness of the PLASC for this purpose by considering the internal quality of the data (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2009-02: Settlement area migration in England & Wales: assessing evidence for a social gradient - Gemma Catney, Ludi Simpson
  

  Employing an area classification based on the minority ethnic population and international and internal migration history of districts in England and Wales, it is hypothesised that those most likely to migrate from ‘immigrant settlement areas’ are those with the greatest economic resources. It is suggested that if migration does vary by level of affluence then a social gradient may be apparent with respect to migration propensity and occupational class membership. Furthermore, if such ‘affluent flight’ can explain ‘racial’ migration patterns, then a similar social gradient would be expected for each ethnic group, and a similar probability of migrating for people of common socio-demographic characteristics, irrespective of ethnic group. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2009-01: Ethnic Differences in Educational Attainments and Progress Revisited - Ian Plewis
  

  The primary school population in England is becoming ethnically more diverse and differences in educational attainments between ethnic groups continue to be of interest. This paper applies multilevel modelling to an administrative database – the National Pupil Database – to assess the extent of these differences and to compare them with more limited data from the 1980s. It shows that the current national picture hides considerable heterogeneity between schools and that the models for both attainment and progress are complex. The analyses highlight the relative educational success of Chinese pupils and a cause for concern about the attainments of black Caribbean boys. Methodological issues about the categorisation of ethnic groups are discussed. . (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2008-22: Migration selectivity and area-based regeneration in England - Stephen Jivraj
  

  Despite limited evidence there appears to be a widely held assumption that area-based regeneration programmes lead to selective migration. Many practitioners, policy-makers and evaluators believe that area-based regeneration programmes exacerbate a process whereby less deprived individuals move out of deprived neighbourhoods and disadvantaged individuals move into deprived neighbourhoods. This paper reviews existing evidence and provides an innovative approach to measuring net migration flows for regeneration areas using Pupil Level Annual School Census data for Neighbourhood Management Pathfinder Round 2 areas in England. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2008-21: Population dynamics: the roles of natural change and migration in producing the ethnic mosaic - Nissa Finney and Ludi Simpson
  

  This paper builds on an emerging literature that focuses on processes of population change as a means of understanding geographies of ethnicity. It argues that persistent assumptions of segregation being the result of divisive separation of ethnic groups are mistaken. The paper takes a demographic approach, presenting analyses of original estimates of natural change and net migration for eight ethnic groups in Britain over the period 1991-2001, at national and district levels. Major results are the greater significance of natural change than migration for minority ethnic population change, and the accordance of population dynamics with theories of counter-urbanisation and dispersal from areas of minority ethnic concentration. The importance of natural change is illustrated through the presentation of its effects on the index of isolation. The paper concludes that ethnic group population change in Britain can to a large extent be explained by benign and unexceptional demographic processes and ethnically undifferentiated migration patterns. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2008-20: Teaching Paper: Binary Logistic Regression - Mark Tranmer, Mark Elliot
  

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• CCSR Paper 2008-19: Teaching Paper: Multiple Linear Regression - Mark Tranmer, Mark Elliot
  

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• CCSR Paper 2008-18: “Sacrificing their Careers for their Families? An Analysis of the Family Pay Penalty in Europe”, - Gash, V.
  

  This paper examines the extent of and the mechanisms behind the penalty to motherhood in six European countries. Each country provides different levels of support for maternal employment allowing us to determine institutional effects on labour market outcome. The paper!s findings confirm those of previous research in the area: mothers tend to earn less than non-mothers. However, the conditions of maternal employment are not the same in all countries, with less evidence of a penalty to motherhood in countries supportive of working mothers. The paper established the United Kingdom and West Germany to have the least policy support for working mothers as well as the largest penalties to motherhood. Gash, V. (2009) “Sacrificing their Careers for their Families? An Analysis of the Family Pay Penalty in Europe”, Social Indicators Research – Special Issue. September 2009, 93(3):569-586. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2008-17: Ethnic Differences in Obesity, Diet and Physical Activity - A Literature review - Vanessa Higgins
  

  In England around a quarter of all adults are classified as obese and this is estimated to rise dramatically in the future (Department of Health, 2008; McPherson et al, 2007). Physical activity and healthy eating habits are widely acknowledged as two of the major ways of preventing obesity - the Department of Health has set recommended levels for both and has launched various public education campaigns to encourage the population to meet those levels. Intervention strategies for physical activity and healthy eating need to recognize cultural and gender differences both between and within ethnic groups. This paper provides a literature review of obesity, diet and physical activity among ethnic groups. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2008-16: Interrogating Segregation, Integration and the Community Cohesion Agenda - Virinder S. Kalra and Nisha Kapoor
  

  The notion of segregation in its current application in British social policy confuses rather than illuminates social processes. While its historical roots lie in a discriminatory practice that was legally instilled in the US, current day usage implies the self-segregation of minority ethnic groups. This paper examines the historical legacy of segregation in the US and UK to argue a shift has occurred in the discourse surrounding the integration of ethnic minority groups, particularly British Muslims. Any attempt to advocate desegregation as a way to promote material equality has been replaced by its use to promote the removal of cultural difference. Contemporary British social policy has taken this further by advocating the necessity of social capital as a means to achieve community cohesion and shared values, further shifting emphasis away from material difference. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2008-15: Oldham and Rochdale: race, housing and community cohesion  - Ludi Simpson, Sameera Ahmed, Debbie Phillips
  

  The report investigates the extent to whi ch housi ng markets in Oldham and Rochdale are racially  segregated, the processes whi ch may l ead to residential segregation and the attitudes and behaviour  whi ch may affect those processes, focusing in particular on communities of Asian heritage. The report,  based on focus groups with White and Asian young adults mostl y aged 18­30 and interviews with key  stake­holders, develops the understanding gained from previous in­depth analysis of past censuses.  (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2008-14: Ethnic Segregation over time and cohorts in England and Wales, 1991-2001 - Albert Sabater
  

  The study of changing residential patterns of ethnic groups is a key area to inform debates on residential segregation and diversity in urban areas. The aim of this paper is twofold. Firstly, it provides empirical evidence of clear declines in residential segregation between 1991 and 2001 in England and Wales using both census data as published and complete mid-year estimates for the same years. For the analysis, we implement segregation and diversity measures across wards nationally and for sub-national areas. The outcomes highlight marginal changes when complete mid-year estimates are used, which incorporate non-response not included in census output and the harmonisation of the population definition and census geographies. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2008-13: Sustainable Rural Communities: The case of two UK National Park areas - Alan Marshall and Ludi Simpson
  

  This paper uses projections of population and housing to explore issues of population sustainability in the Cairngorms and Peak District National Parks. The projections demonstrate that if recent trends of births, deaths and migration continue both National Parks will not be sustainable as the younger profile of out-migration relative to in-migration causes populations to become increasingly elderly. Whilst these processes of demographic change are common to many rural areas we demonstrate that the effects of migration and associated population ageing are more extreme within the National Parks than in surrounding areas. Further projection scenarios show that simply building more houses will not prevent the decline in the working age population. Policies that aim to change the migration age pattern and to cater for the needs of the eto be maintained. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2008-12: Processing Everything - lessons from comprehensive automate processing of the UK Large Scale Government Surveys - Sam Smith
  

  A common problem when searching repositories for secondary microdata is finding useful data to meet specific requirements. Variables are a fundamental building block of data analysis and usage. This paper covers the technical implementation and design of a infrastructure underlying a information and cross-references system for finding variables in each file of the 650 (and growing) large-scale UK Government datasets supported by ESDS Government and the Samples of Anonymised Records (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2008-11: Variables, Datasets and Finding what you want: Developing Online Search Tools - Anthony rafferty and Sam Smith
  

  A common problem when searching repositories for secondary microdata is finding useful data to meet specific requirements. Variables are a fundamental building block of data analysis and usage. This paper covers the benefits to users from a search system that generates information and cross- references for variables in each file in the 650 (and growing) large-scale UK Government datasets supported by ESDS Government and the Samples of Anonymised Records. Use of broad but highly targeted search combined with the integration of a variety of sources of data, documentation, and metadata facilitates a powerful search platform. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2008-10: Teaching Paper: fsQCA - Ray Kent
  

  FsQCA (fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis) is a program that uses combinatorial logic, fuzzy set theory and Boolean minimisation to work out what combinations of case characteristics may be necessary or sufficient to produce an outcome. The program, along with a manual and a selection of working papers, is available for free at www.compasss.org. (Full paper)

• ISC Paper 2008-09: Mapping ‘small things’ on the Web: Assessing the online presence of the nanotechnology industry - Robert Ackland, Rachel Gibson, Stephen Ward
  

  This paper uses a new approach to collection and analysis of data from the World Wide Web (WWW) to examine the online networks being built by the nanotechnology industry, the academia and other producers. In particular, we investigate the extent to which the nanotech sector as a whole is engaging with the wider social/public debate over the issue. This is a question of considerable significance, given the furore that greeted biotechnology 'companies' introduction of ‘GM’ foods, and their apparent failure to anticipate the public backlash over perceived risks to human and environmental health. (Full paper)

• ISC Paper 2008-08: Hyperlinks and horizontal political communication on the WWW: The untold story of parties online - Dr Robert Ackland & Professor Rachel Gibson†
  

  This paper investigates political parties' use of a new form of political communication -online horizontal communication through hyperlinks. Specifically, we argue that hyperlinks facilitate a set of new and important communicative functions and have significant implications for parties’ online visibility and prominence for voters. These propositions are empirically investigated with hyperlink data gathered from over one hundred parties from six democratic countries using a new research method (and associated software tool) that integrates web mining and data visualization techniques to collect and categorize link data from websites. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2008-06: How many elected representatives does local government need? A review of evidence from Europe - Kingsley Purdham, Peter John, Stephen Greasley, Paul Norman
  

  The question of the appropriate number of elected representatives is at the heart of debates about democratic governance, representation and citizen engagement. However, there has only been limited comparative research on the factors and processes involved in determining the number of elected representatives that are suitable for a particular governance structure. In this article we examine the principles and practices informing the size of local government in the UK and other European countries. The issue of the number of elected representatives remains a neglected area of reform and innovation. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2008-05: Ethnic Differences in graduate over-education in the UK - Anthony Rafferty and Angela Dale
  

  A small number of studies consider whether there are ethnic differences in the UK in the incidence of over-education. Using the SOC (HE), this paper uses a denition of graduate jobs based on qualification concentrations in occupations and job analysis data to examine the incidence of graduate level over-education by ethnicity. Given that ethnic differences exist in levels of educational attainment, we argue that drawing comparisons between people of equivalent levels of educational attainment, such as graduates, provides a better test of ethnic differences than overall measures which include respondents of all qualification levels. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2008-04: SARs Custom Subset Tool - Sam Smith
  

  This discusses the background and implementation behind the SARs Custom Subset Tool, which allows users to download a customised subset of variables from the 2001 Samples of Anonymised Records. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2008-03: Components of Population Change: An Indirect Method for Estimating Births, Deaths and Net Migration for Age, Sex, Ethnic Group and sub-Regional Areas of Britain, 1991-2001 - Ludi Simpson, Nissa Finney, Susan Lomax
  

  This paper details the method used in the Migration, Race and Population Dynamics project to estimate births, deaths and net migration over the period 1991-2001 for local authority districts of Britain, with sex detail and, for migration, age breakdown by single year. Estimates are needed because little demographic information is available for ethnic groups in Britain. The estimates produced not only provide demographic breakdown of population change for small areas, but are unique because they refer to the inter-censal decade and give net migration that includes emigration. They form part of a broader project investigating the demographic drivers of Britain’s changing ethnic group geographies. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2008-02: Migration, marriage and employment amongst Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi residents in the UK - Angela Dale
  

  Discussion over marriage migration in the UK has largely focussed on the South Asian groups, identified in survey data as Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi. This paper uses qualitative interviews and survey data to gain some insights into how UK-born Pakistani and Bangladeshi women view marriage and, in particular, marriage to a partner from their country of origin; the extent to which UK- born Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi women and men marry partners from overseas and the key factors that influence this and the effect on the level of economic activity for Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi women of a UK-born versus an or overseas born spouse. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2008-01: Pakistani and Bangladeshi Women’s Labour Market Participation - Sameera Ahmed and Angela Dale
  

  It is well established that Pakistani and Bangladeshi women generally have lower rates of economic activity and higher rates of unemployment compared to other minority ethnic groups and also White women. For example, in 2001-5, levels of economic activity for women aged 19-60 (excluding full-time students) were 31% for Pakistani women and 21% for Bangladeshi women, by comparison with 78% for Black Caribbean women and 77% for White women. Although levels of economic activity are low, unemployment is also high amongst the economically active – 15% for Pakistani and 16% for Bangladeshi women in 2001-5 by comparison with 3.4% for White women for the same time period. The Equal Opportunities Commission has identified ‘five employment gaps’ which affect Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Black Caribbean women: 1) participation; 2) unemployment; 3) progression; 4) pay, and; 5) occupational segregation. In this paper we will focus on Pakistani and Bangladeshi women to address the first two of these issues – and also provide some insights into the others. We use a combination of national survey data and qualitative interviews. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2007-13: A quantile regression analysis of gender differences in wage mobility - Nikos Tzavidis, Shirley Dex
  

  Wage growth between ages 33 and 42 was modeled as a function of age 33 wages, gender and other labour market relevant characteristics using a quantile regression approach. The data are from a cohort of British men and women, born in 1958, who were employed full time at both ages. The age 33 starting wage and wage squared explain much of the gender differences in age 42 wages and the fact that men are more likely than women to work in high wage and male dominated occupations. Quantile regression revealed differences in predictors of wage growth across the wage distribution. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2007-12: Population Forecasts for Birmingham - Ludi Simpson
  

  January 29th 2007 Ludi Simpson Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research, University of Manchester The forecast has been completed for eight ethnic group categories – White, Caribbean, African, Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Chinese and Other, and extends to 2028. Birmingham’s population is expected to grow steadily to 1.1m by 2026, reversing the decline of the 1990s. Birmingham’s population was diverse in 2001, with White, Pakistani, Indian and Caribbean populations numbering over 40 thousand. African and Bangladeshi populations will also number more than 40 thousand by 2026. A further 150 thousand or more than 10% of the population will come from a diverse range of other groups. The White population is not expected to fall below one half of the total until 2024, and it will remain more than twice the size of any other group. The working age population will grow as whole by 62 thousand in the next 20 years, most of this growth at older ages. Black and minority ethnic residents will make up 50% of the population aged 40-64 by 2026, where they are 25% in 2006. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2007-11: Enhancing the population census: a time series for sub-national areas with age, sex and ethnic group dimensions in England and Wales, 1991-2001 - Albert Sabater and Ludi Simpson
  

  Ethnicity data from successive censuses are used to compare population change. This paper shows that such comparisons are often impossible, wrong or misleading. Distortions become more severe as the scale of areal units become smaller. The paper outlines the four main sources of confusion and applies solutions for England and Wales for 1991-2001. The paper presents methods that can be used to resolve these difficulties and produce more accurate results, and produces a consistent time series for single years of age, ethnic group and sex that can be aggregated from the smallest census output areas. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2007-10: On Robust Mean Squared Error Estimation for Linear Predictors for Domains - Ray Chambers, Hukum Chandra, Nikos Tzavidis,
  

  We discuss robust mean squared error estimation for linear predictors of finite population domain means. Our approach represents an extension of the ideas in Royall and Cumberland (1978) and appears to lead to estimators that are simpler to implement, and potentially more robust, than those suggested in the small area literature. We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach through both model-based as well as design-based simulation, with the latter based on two realistic survey data sets containing small area information. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2007-09: Small Area Estimation via M-Quantile Geographically Weighted Regression - Nikos Tzavidis
  

  One popular approach to small area estimation when data are spatially correlated is to employ Simultaneous Autoregressive Regression (SAR) random effects models to define an extension to the Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor namely, the Spatial Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (SEBLUP) (Singh et al., 2005 and Pratesi and Salvati, 2007). SAR models allow for spatial correlation in the error structure. An alternative approach for incorporating the spatial information in the regression model is via Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) (Brunsdon et al., 1996; Fotheringham et al., 1997). GWR extends the traditional regression model by allowing local rather than global parameters to be estimated. In this paper we investigate the use of GWR in small area estimation based on the M-quantile modelling approach (Chambers and Tzavidis, 2006). In doing so we first propose an M-quantile GWR model that is a local model for the M-quantiles of the conditional distribution of the outcome variable given the covariates (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2007-08: Robust Prediction of Small Area Means and Distributions - Nikos Tzavidis
  

  Small area estimation techniques typically rely on mixed models containing random area effects to characterise between area variability. In contrast, Chambers and Tzavidis (2006) describe an approach to small area estimation based on regression M­quantiles. This approach avoids conventional Gaussian assumptions and problems associated with specification of random effects, allowing between area differences to be characterized by the variation of area­specific M­quantile coefficients. However, the resulting M­quantile predictors of small area means can be biased. In this paper we propose a general framework for robust bias adjusted small area prediction that corrects this problem, and is based on representing a small area predictor as a functional either of the Chambers and Dunstan (1986) or of the Rao­Kovar­Mantel (1990) predictor of the within area distribution of the target variable. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2007-07: Preferences vs Constraints Revisited: Multilevel Modelling of Women's Working Time Preferences in England and Scotland - Pierre Walthery
  

  This paper investigates determinants of the probability of preferring to work less hours among part-time and full-time working women aged 16 to 59 in England and Scotland in 2005-2006, against the background of the ongoing discussion about the role of preferences and orientations to work in women (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2007-06: “Constraints or Preferences? Identifying Answers from Part-time Workers’ Transitions in Denmark, France and the United-Kingdom”. - Gash, V.
  

  This paper investigates whether women work part-time through preference or constraint and argues that different countries provide different opportunities for preference attainment. It argues that women with family responsibilities are unlikely to have their working preferences met without national policies supportive of maternal employment. Using event-history analysis the paper tracks part-time workers Publication Details: Gash, V (2008) “Constraints or Preferences? Identifying Answers from Part-time Workers’ Transitions in Denmark, France and the United-Kingdom”, Work, Employment and Society. December 2008, Volume 22, No. 4, pp. 655-674. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2007-05: M-Quantile Models with Application to Poverty Mapping - Nikos Tzavidis
  

  Over the last decade there has been growing demand for estimates of population characteristics at small area level. Unfortunately, cost constraints in the design of sample surveys lead to small sample sizes within these areas and as a result direct estimation, using only the survey data, is inappropriate since it yields estimates with unacceptable levels of precision. Small area models are designed to tackle the small sample size problem. The most popular class of models for small area estimation is random effects models that include random area effects to account for between area variations. However, such models also depend on strong distributional assumptions, require a formal specification of the random part of the model and do not easily allow for outlier robust inference. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2007-04: Internal migration and ethnic groups: evidence for the UK from the 2001 Census - Nissa Finney and Ludi Simpson
  

  Internal migration is responsible for the changing geography of Britain’s ethnic group populations. However, relatively little is known about the internal migration behaviour of different ethnic groups. This paper reviews existing evidence and analyses 2001 Census data to provide an overview of patterns and trends in levels of migration, geographies of migration and characteristics of migrants for ethnic groups separately. It finds that counter-urbanisation, a north-south shift and dispersal from areas of co-ethnic concentration are common to all ethnic groups. If ‘white flight’ is to be identified, ‘non-white flight’ should be also. Those who migrate in each ethnic group have the same characteristics leading to the assertion that differences in levels of migration result from differing socio-economic and age compositions of ethnic groups. This is confirmed through regression analysis. Differences in distance migrated, however, is not explained by the composition of ethnic groups. This, and other notable exceptions to the general patterns, are highlighted as avenues for further investigation. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2007-03: Teaching Paper: Multilevel Modelling - Mark Tranmer, Mark Elliot
  

  A teaching paper on multilevel modelling (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2007-01: Local press re-presentation contestation of national discourses asylum seeker dispersal - Nissa Finney and Vaughan Robinson
  

  This paper explores the importance of locality in understanding reactions to the policy of dispersal for asylum seekers in the UK. Using critical discourse analysis of local press for two case study locations – Leeds and Cardiff - the paper demonstrates that, despite ingrained national discourses on some aspects of asylum issues, notably the need for dispersal to facilitate integration and the avoidance of ‘ghettos’, there are still significant and important local differences in how the issues are framed and constructed. The paper argues that in terms of understanding discourses around asylum, it is essential to take into account local identity and local moral discourses on accommodating diversity. Furthermore, it is suggested that there is political potential in local discourses that challenge the dominant, supra-local, moral panic discourses. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2006-12: Jobs deficits, neighbourhood effects and ethnic penalties - explaining labour market inequalities of ethnic minorities - Ludi Simpson, Kingsley Purdam, Abdelouahid Tajar, John Pritchard, Danny Dorling
  

  We introduce a unique evidence base of labour market circumstances at the neighbourhood level with ethnic group dimensions from the 1991 and 2001 Censuses. It is a public resource which can be used to investigate local outcomes and to prioritise remedial action. Our analysis demonstrates that 1.1 million new jobs are required to bring every ethnic group in every locality up to the average England and Wales employment rate. Ethnic group accounts for most of this jobs deficit. Local variation in demographic composition and human capital account for a smaller proportion of the jobs deficit. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2006-11: Developing Strategies for Deriving Small Population Migration Rates - Lee Williamson
  

  This working paper is intended as a resource for users intending to create small area and/or ethnic group migration rates. It presents methods, data and various strategies for creating migration rates for use in population projections and introduces the ways of modelling migration rates. It also presents examples using data from the Bradford district and outlines data sources that could be used to assist in the creation of migration rates for Bradford wards and/or ethnic groups (including country of birth (COB)). While no ethnic-specific age-specific migration rates (ASMigRs) are created, a pragmatic strategy is presented at the Bradford ward-level. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2006-10: Developing Strategies for Deriving Small Population Mortality Rates - Lee Williamson
  

  This working paper is intended as a resource for users intending to create small area and/or ethnic group mortality rates. It presents methods, data and various strategies for creating mortality rates for use in population projections and introduces the ways of modelling mortality rates, including literature from the actuarial field. The methods review includes mortality laws, or mathematical models, and splines. Examples are presented using data from the Bradford district and outlines data sources that could be used to assist in the creation of mortality rates for Bradford wards and/or ethnic groups (including country of birth (COB)). While no ethnic-specific age-specific mortality rates (ASMRs) are created, two strategies of using relational-type approaches are presented for the Bradford wards. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2006-09: Measuring Ethnic Differences: are surveys up to the job? - Mark Brown
  

  The sample survey is valued as a major source of quantitative information about UK society, informing both academic and policy research. Using the investigation of ethnic differences in health as an exemplar, this paper considers the limitations of the sample survey as a research tool for understanding ethnic differences. Specifically it highlights the limitations imposed by sample size, drawing on the authors secondary analysis of the 1999 Health Survey for England (a high profile Government survey specifically designed to facilitate ethnic group analysis). The analysis reveals that statistically reliable comparisons between ethnic groups could only be achieved via a strategy of heavy recoding of age and ethnicity that seriously compromised the theoretical integrity and substantive value of the analysis (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2006-08: Sex and susceptibility in Sub-Saharan Africa: implications for the measurement of unmet need for family planning - Mark Brown
  

  The concept of unmet need for family planning has provided a major research focus in fertility studies over recent decades and been highly influential in the development and evaluation of family planning programme effort in the developing world. From initially crude measures in the 1970s the algorithms used to derive unmet need statistics have become increasingly complex, led by major improvements in the supply of data on susceptibility status and fertility intentions. Despite this, the measure remains essentially a dichotomous measure of risk, with women ‘in need’ or ‘not in need’, without sensitivity to ‘degrees of risk’. The adequacy of such a representation is challenged using evidence from the Demographic Health Surveys (DHS) programme. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2006-07: Registration of South Asian Populations at the 2001 General Election: New Evidence from the 2001 Census. - Ed Fieldhouse, David Cutts and Paul Norman
  

  This paper reports research based on analysis of the 2001 Census and a sample of marked electoral registers. These data allow us to estimate registration rates with a considerable degree of accuracy, and provide comparative estimates for South Asian religious minorities and the rest of the population. We make three important findings. First, unlike turnout, South Asian registration is lower than that of the population as a whole. Second, a large proportion of the difference in registration rates is attributable to ineligibility associated with country of birth. Third, South Asian registration is higher in areas where South Asians are most geographically concentrated. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2006-06: Ghettos of the mind: the empirical behaviour of indices of segregation and diversity - Ludi Simpson
  

  The impact of immigration on social cohesion is a political issue, expressed as a fear that racially skewed residential patterns represent ghettos which prevent integration. Residential patterns have been measured by indices of segregation. The range of indices is reviewed in this paper and measured empirically for England and Wales using census data for 1991 and 2001. There has been an increase in residential mixing as a result of growing minority populations and their more even spread across localities. These two trends are identified by two commonly used indices of segregation which are moving in opposite directions for Muslim groups. The sensitivity of each index to modifiable area boundaries makes them unsuitable for evaluation of relative cities' relative performance. The residential patterns of cities after immigration are more clearly understood using demographic measures of migration, births and deaths. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2006-05: Quantifying stability and change in ethnic group - Ludi Simpson and Bola Akinwale
  

  We investigate the stability of individuals' affiliation to ethnic group categories using the Longitudinal Study of England and Wales linked between the Censuses of 1991 and 2001. While membership of the White category is stable, between seven and nine per cent of those recorded in an Asian group in 1991 have changed to a different group by 2001, while 23% of the Caribbean and African groups have changed. We quantify the separate influences of question unreliability, changes in categories, and conscious change of affiliation, finding that the latter contributes little instability over the period 1991-2001. The unreliability of the question is significant, due partly to the ambiguity of the categories for some people, and partly to imprecise imputation of missing values. We find the best correspondence between the different classifications used in 1991 and 2001 using empirical measures of fit. We investigate compatible classifications using larger and smaller numbers of categories. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2006-04: Population dynamics in ethnically diverse towns: the long-term implications of immigration - Ludi Simpson, Vasilis Gavalas and Nissa Finney
  

  Ethnically diverse urban areas are often strongly influenced by the medium and long-term demographic consequences of immigration. Hypotheses regarding the population, housing and social changes following immigration are here set out in a dynamic paradigm. These are tested using a time series of census data for Oldham and Rochdale. The results show how natural growth generates dispersal of immigrant populations to new clusters. They chart the changing nature of cities, and challenge the interpretation of clustering as a negative phenomenon, instead focusing on indicators of demographic change, demand for housing and services, and social equality. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2006-03: Abstainers are not all the same: A latent Class Analysis of Heterogeneity in the British Electorate in 2005 - Nick Shryane, Ed Fieldhouse, Andrew Pickles
  

  (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2006-02: Voter Turnout in British South Asian Communities at the 2001 General Election - Ed Fieldhouse and Dave Cutts
  

  Turnout at the 2001 General Election was at its lowest under the full democratic franchise. A recent Electoral Commission report argued that, whilst Black, Pakistani and Bangladeshi electors are less likely to vote in General Elections, Indian electors are more likely than their white counterparts to turnout (Purdam et al, 2002). However, existing research that attempts to provide ethnic-specific estimates relies heavily on survey data or aggregate data. Such data are highly unreliable when measuring turnout, particularly amongst minority groups. More reliable data are needed to inform the intense policy debate around widening differences in participation, and to give us a better understanding of who participates in elections in Britain. This paper provides arguably the most accurate estimate of electoral turnout amongst Britain's South Asian communities that have been possible to date. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2006-01: Modeling multiparty elections, preference classes and strategic voting. - Ed Fieldhouse, Andrew Pickles, Nick Shryane, Jerry Johnson, Kingsley Purdam
  

  We examine the role of strategic motivations in mediating the relationship between underlying political preferences and vote choice, in a multi-party, single member, simple plurality system. Political preference data from the British Election Panel Survey, 1997- 2001, were modeled with mixed multinomial logit models. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2005-10: The utility of medically certified sickness absence data as an updatable indicator of population health - Paul Norman
  

  We have access to annual mortality data and decennial census data on self-assessed health. Data on sickness absence, `Incapacity Benefit' (IB), are regularly available and claimants are professionally diagnosed. Here we examine the potential of IB to be an annual small area indicator of population health. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2005-09: Representation and local democracy: geographical variations in elector to councillor ratios - Paul Norman
  

  A key principal of democracy is that for each political unit the number of electors per representative should be as equal as possible. Here we examine variations in elector to councillor ratios at local authority and ward levels in England and consider whether variations relate to ethnic minority population distributions. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2005-08: A lifecourse perspective on ethnic differences in women's economic activity in Britain - Angela Dale
  

  Research on women's employment has demonstrated greater differentials between ethnic groups than for men, with economic activity highest for Black women and lowest for Pakistani and Bangladeshi women. Unemployment is higher for all minority ethnic groups than for white women (Table 1). How do we explain these differences and how are they changing across generations and over time? This paper will focus on explaining differences in economic activity between the white, Black Caribbean/Black other, Indian and Pakistani and Bangladeshi groups. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2005-07: Custom geography conversion enabling compatability between 1991 and 2001 Census ward geographies. - Paul Norman
  

  Provide custom geography conversion lookup tables that enable area data disseminated for the 1991 Census wards to be compatible with the 2001 Census ward definition (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2005-06: Labour force projections for Derbyshire - Ludi Simpson et al
  

  This document provides a report of labour force projections, summarising the main features of projected change in economic activity. The work was commissioned by Derbyshire County Council, as part of larger project to forecast the population, labour force and households. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2005-05: Population projections for Derbyshire County Council - Ludi Simpson et al
  

  This document provides a report of population projections, summarising the main features of the projections and the differences between alternative projections for Derbyshire CC, its districts and Derby UA. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2005-03: Household forecasts for Stoke-on-Trent UA, with an ethnic group dimension - Ludi Simpson et al
  

  Household forecasts for Stoke-on-Trent The forecast has been completed for five ethnic group categories White, Black, Indian, Pakistani/Bangladeshi (combined in one group) and Other, and extends to 2028. Because the trends for smaller groups and in the more distant future are less predictable, this report focuses on the change up to 2021, for Stoke as a whole and the two largest groups, White and Pakistani/Bangladeshi. (Full paper)

• CCSR Paper 2005-01: Population forecasts for Stoke-on-Trent UA, with an ethnic group dimension - Ludi Simpson et al
  

  The forecast has been completed for five ethnic group categories White, Black, Indian, Pakistani/Bangladeshi (combined in one group) and Other, and extends to 2028. Because the trends for smaller groups and in the more distant future are less predictable, this report focuses on the change up to 2021, for Stoke as a whole and the two largest groups, White and Pakistani/Bangladeshi. (Full paper)

The word document for the front cover is available from the CCSR intranet.

Older Working/Occasional Papers

• 2004-01: Working Paper 7: Jo Wathan and Steve Decent
  Mathematical Modelling of Social Change
• 2001-01: Working Paper 6: Mark Brown and Angela Dale
  A survey of SAR users, their requirements for 2001 SARs and their views on dissemination and support.
• 2000-01: See also papers from our conference, June 2000
  The Census of Population: 2000 and Beyond
• 1998-02: Working Paper 5: Angela Dale and Mark Elliot
  A report on the disclosure risk of proposals for SARs from the 2001 Census.
• 1998-01: Angela Dale
  Transitions over the lifecourse: can changing employment structures provide opportunities for greater gender equality?  Keynote presentation - Work, Employment and Society Conference. Cambridge, September 1998.
• 1997-04: Working Paper 1: Dr Ludi Simpson
  Socioeconomic Differentials in non-response: a procedure for adjusting Census Data.
• 1997-03: Working Paper 2: Ludi Simpson and Elizabeth Middleton
  Who is missed by a national census? A review of empirical results from Australia, Britain, Canada, and the USA 
• 1997-02: Working Paper 3: Elizabeth Middleton and Ludi Simpson
  The impact of 1991 Census non-response: a first report of the survey.
• 1997-01: Working Paper 4: Clare Holdsworth
  Household classification for Spain.

See also the CCSR Occasional Papers which have yet to be merged into the above list.

All newer files are downloadable in pdf format. If you would like a copy of any publications which are not downloadable, please contact Philippa on p.walker@manchester.ac.uk