From 2010, the Derived Forecasts module produces household projections, replicating the various methods in use in the UK for the 2008-based and subsequent rounds of sub-national projections. Data Modules are available to make the task of setting up household projections easy for POPGROUP users, using official data.
The rest of this page describes the use of the previous software HOUSEGROUP to replicate previous rounds of official projections.
A routine reads England government household projections for sub-national areas, and reproduces those projections within HOUSEGROUP in a matter of minutes. (Wales, Scotland, see bottom of sheet)
1. Download GetGovtHHData.xls and GetGovtHHData Documentation.doc into your Housegroup_v3 directory (they may in fact be kept in any location).
2. Download HH_EW2003Gov_Program.xla, HH_EW2004Gov_Program.xla, HH_E2006Gov_Program.xla and HHDETR_Program.xla into your HHSysfiles directory (some of these may replace existing programs - simply over-write them).
The file 'GetGovtHHData.xls' does the work and has instructions within it which may be enough for you. The Word file of documentation provides further detail, including the source of government data which each user will need to get themselves.
This routine will read in government household projections data and produce HOUSEGROUP input files for population, for those not-in-households, and for headship rates which will reproduce the government household projections. These can also be amended with local assumptions, and used with other population projections. The routine fills up the skeletons within a HOUSEGROUP model which you have already defined with group labels (see the HOUSEGROUP user manual).
Although we have copies of all the data, the government departments prefer each user to obtain data direct from them, in order to maintain contact with users, as detailed below.
2006-based household projections for areas within England
The 2006-based household projections for areas within England were published on 11th March 2009. The data for local authority areas has been processed by CLG and Experian into a format similar to that used previously, so that it can be read into HOUSEGROUP.
The data for all local authority districts within one region are available on request from Jane.hinton@communities.gsi.gov.uk
Household projections for areas within Wales and Scotland
The Welsh Assembley Government provide district household forecasts in POPGROUP format on their website, using specially created software which uses their method of household membership rates, HOUSEGROUP-WALES, in their data bank under the heading 'housing'.
The GRO(Scotland) provides data for their Council Area headship rates and projections in Excel format.