Demographic forecasting with Popgroup
POPGROUP is a family of software developed to forecast population, households and the labour force for areas and social groups. It is based on Excel to build on users' existing spreadsheet skills. Users develop alternative assumptions as scenarios. The user remains in control of the areas to be forecast, of data inputs, and of analytical outputs additional to the software's own flexible reporting and graphical routines. In the UK, POPGROUP replicates official projections in regular Data Modules for population and households, with plans for Data Modules for illness and disability, the labour force, ethnic groups and adult care. The software adopts authoritative methods also used by national and United Nations agencies, uses single years of age for population, and has published two peer reviews.
Version 4 of POPGROUP, released January 2014
Educational License for teaching
UK Data Modules -The following Data Modules are now available for use:
2011-based sub-national Population projections (WG Wales, 2010-based for ONS England, NRS Scotland)
2011-based sub-national Household projections (WG Wales, CLG England, 2010-based for NRS Scotland)
2001-based sub-national Disability and Illness projections (each country in UK, based on Manchester University research)
POPGROUP evaluated by Latin American Population Association (report in Spanish).
Derived Forecasts. A new module to forecast households, labour force, disability and any population characteristic related to population age-sex composition. Presentation summarising the new module.
Frequently Asked Questions. As an interim step, these are provided as a pdf file with links (last updated February 2012)
Data Guide. As an interim step, this is provided as a pdf file with links (last updated November 2011)
How will I use the 2011 Census to update my forecasts? Guidance Note No.4 (with minor corrections 11Oct2012)
Using mid-2011 population estimates to update population projections Guidance Note No. 5 (with minor corrections 11Oct2012)
Further details about Popgroup can be found by clicking on the drop-down menus along the top of this page.
Established by Bradford City Council and Andelin Associates with the support of its User Group, POPGROUP was further developed by the Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research (CCSR) at the University of Manchester. It is now owned by the Local Government Association and supported by Edge Analytics Ltd. Support: firstname.lastname@example.org