The Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research

Population Estimating and Forecasting

Dates: 16th May 2012
Duration: 1 day (10am — 4:30pm)
Level: Intermediate
Course Fee: £175 (£125 for those from educational institutions)

CCSR offers 5 free places to research staff and students within the Faculty of Humanities at the University of Manchester and the North West Doctoral Training Centre.
Course Leader: Paul Norman
Course Requirements: It is assumed that participants will have prior knowledge of the content of the Demographic Concepts and Methods course. Experience of Microsoft Excel is essential.

Course Summary

This course is aimed at those with a working knowledge of demography but having a need to expand this into the use of estimation and forecasting. The morning sessions will focus on relatively simple methods of estimating subnational populations. We then move onto more complex cohort-component methods. In the afternoon we learn how to forecast future populations and experiment with varying our assumptions about future demographic trends.

Please note that a portfolio of demographic-related course is offered at CCSR over a five day period. As noted above, participants are assumed here to have prior knowledge of Demographic Concepts and Methods, but if not, they may be interested in taking this course on days 1 and 2. This standalone course on Population Estimating and Forecasting takes place on day 3 and acts as a foundation course for those with no experience of this topic who may be taking the course on using the ‘POPGROUP’ software which take place on days 4 and 5.

Course Objectives

The course aims:

To provide a grounding in the principles underlying estimating and forecasting
To provide practical experience of carrying out calculations

So that, by the end of the course, participants will:

Have an awareness of appropriate data sources
Be able to apply appropriate techniques to produce population estimates and forecasts for use in a range of research & policy situations
Be well-resourced in terms of both methods and skills)

Target Audience

This course is designed for current and potential users of demographic data who may be wanting to learn estimating and forecasting. Participants wishing to get skilled up in this topic area might be postgraduate or other established academics or be from local/national government, health service, emergency services or business backgrounds.

Preliminary Reading

Rowland D (2003) Demographic Methods and Concepts. Oxford University Press: Oxford