Many people move from simple regression to more complex causal modelling as their professional life develops.  This course introduces basic techniques that are helpful for making statistical inferences in the intermediate level models:  using a ‘long’ format panel data set; applying regression to panel data; drawing out causal interpretations. The course will also cover some causal concepts, describe statistical approaches to causal inference, give worked examples of regression models, and give hands-on experience in applied causal analysis using STATA.  The fixed-effect model that predicts the change in a dependent variable (over time) will be presented.  We contrast that model with pooled data and random-effects models.  Panel data, such as time-series, repeat measurements, and longitudinal studies, are provided to be used during the practical sessions.  No prior experience with such data is required.

Course Aims

At the end of this course, participants should have:

• An understanding of what fixed-effects regression models offer that is not found in standard regression.
• A knowledge of causal concepts such as endogeneity, confounding, intermediate variables, moderators and proximate cause.
• Hands-on experience using STATA for regression (this may be your first STATA experience).

Course Programme

• Causal analysis with panel data.
• Panel regression (fixed effects and random effects models - practical session using xtrag command; post-estimation commands for xtreg variants).
• Opening the avenue to structural equation modelling using 2 or 3 equations (a practical session looking at the correlation and covariance matrices; discussion of how they relate to the output; a brief discussion of xtivreg and some alternatives to it).
• Intermediate, intervening, moderating and endogenous variables (a brief paper exercise in causal modelling with proximate and distal causes).
• Time, endogeneity, and the connections with event-history  analysis - a preview.

Overall, we discuss bias and mediating variables as they affect the regression slopes. A reference list is provided for further reading.

Preliminary Reading

• Fox, J. (2008) Applied regression analysis and generalised linear models, Los Angeles; London, Sage
• Mukherjee, C. H. White, et al. (1998) Econometrics and data analysis for developing countries, London, New York, Routledge
• StataCorp, L. P. (2007) Stata longitudinal/panel data: reference manual, College Station, Tex., Stata Press
• Wooldridge, J. M. (2003) Introductory econometrics: a modern approach, Australia; United Kingdom, South-Western College Publishing
• Gash, V. (2008) "Sacrificing their Careers for their Families? An Analysis of the Penalty to Motherhood in Europe" Retrieved June, 2009, http://www.ccsr.ac.uk/publications/working/2008-18.pdf